Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

On 28 January 2010 over sixty foreign ministers and other senior figures from countries belonging to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours and representatives from international organisations, such as NATO, the UN, the EU and the World Bank will meet in London to discuss the future of Afghanistan. The conference will be co-hosted by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and it will be co-chaired by the UK and Afghan Foreign Ministers, David Miliband and Dr Zalmai Rassoul, respectively.

PM Gordon Brown and President Hamid Karzai, photo by AFP/Getty Images 

The stated objective of the conference is to elaborate a coordinated strategy, which will enable President Karzai to strengthen his administration, improve security in his country and start charting a better future for the Afghan people. Throughout, the aim is to develop a coherent policy with the involvement of Afghanistan’s leadership, as well as the wider input of the international community. It is not the first attempt of its kind – other conferences took place over the last decade – but the London event comes at a crucial moment in the war in Afghanistan and could, therefore, be considered a landmark of sorts.  The London summit will be divided into three parts, with keynote speakers for each session. As a rule, Afghan officials and ministers will lead the debate. The key issues to discussed are:

• Security;
• Development and governance;
• Regional framework and international architecture.

According to Gordon Brown, the main achievement of the London Conference would be to outline a clear set of priorities to the international coalition, as well as building on the current political momentum.  In his November 2009 speech, the British premier outlined a few key goals for the current Afghan campaign, and presented a rough timetable:

• Within three months: the Afghan government will provide additional troops to Helmand province for training. This project will increase the number of troops of the Afghan army by about 50,000;
• Within six months: a plan will be elaborated for Afghan police training, as well as for fighting corruption;
• Within nine months: almost 400 provincial and district governors will be elected;
• Within twelve months: 5000 additional Afghan troops will be trained by ISAF in Helmand province.

Both military and political strategies will be reviewed during the conference, with a key focus on cooperation between all 43 members of the coalition. The delicate – and sometimes difficult relationships between Afghanistan and its immediate neighbours - such as Pakistan, India and Iran - will also be raised.     

      Afghan commandos during a graduation ceremony, source: ISAF, photo by US Air Force Staff Sgt Logan Tuttle  

During a hearing at the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 21 January 2010, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband stated that, in his view, NATO is far from reaching its goals of training a competent Afghan police force. He admitted that some progress has been made; however, drug use and poor education among the Afghan recruits are still hampering the process. Miliband stressed that military reinforcements alone will not be enough to achieve success in Afghanistan.

During a press conference on 20 January British Ambassador to Afghanistan Mark Sedwill expressed beliefs that the London summit has the potential to be a turning point in the campaign. He stressed that the conference carries a special significance as it is the first meeting where the agenda will be set by the Afghan government and followed by the international community.  

THE US EXPECTATIONS 

In his testimony before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 9 December 2009, US Deputy Secretary for Management and Resources Jacob J. Lew outlined a New Afghanistan Strategy, which coincides with the main points to be discussed during the London Conference. Lew announced that the US wants to create a sense of urgency in order to encourage President Karzai to implement necessary reforms, and particularly in anti-corruption measures. 

The revised American strategy also puts emphasis on delivering high-impact economic assistance aimed at boosting Afghanistan’s agricultural sector. Lew stressed the importance of establishing a strong partnership with Pakistan, which would help the broader fight against extremism in the region. 

ISAF members are expected to announce their new commitments to the coalition during the upcoming summit. Germany will unveil its new concept for future strategy in Afghanistan, which is said to focus primarily on civilian reconstruction efforts. Exact troop levels have not been disclosed, with German officials stating they will not be influenced by pressure from other allied countries. 

The London Conference is supposed to be followed by another international summit in Kabul later in the year. The purpose of the latter will be to present the Afghan people with their government’s commitments agreed on during the upcoming London Conference.    

The focus of attention at the London Conference will concentrate on President Karzai’s abilities to persuade the international community of his commitments to Afghanistan, as outlined during his inauguration speech on 19 November 2009. His pledge included a promise to crack down on corruption by establishing an anti-corruption unit, as well as rebuilding his government by appointing competent and professional ministers, including more women. A second area of attention would be the possibility of including more actors into Afghanistan’s administration, by co-opting tribal leaders wishing to renounce violence.    

Troop Contributing Nations Numbers as of 22 December 2009 (on 1 December 2009 US President Barack Obama announced the plan for deployment of additional 30000 troops), source: ISAF  

The coalition forces have suffered approximately 1599 military fatalities since the beginning of the campaign in 2001 to the present date (as of 22 January 2010).

Fatalities by country (2001-2010), source: iCasualties.org 

Agnieszka Eile

RUSI